ETF Explorer/Bonds & Fixed Income/TMF

TMF

NYSE

Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Treasury 3×

Issued by Direxion · Bonds & Fixed Income

$33.97

1.45% today

Today

-1.45%

3 Month

-11.70%

YTD

-7.87%

1 Year

-2.72%

Price Chart

251 trading days · Use "Compare" tab to overlay other ETFs + regimes

Price History

Compare — add ETFs, toggle regime overlay

Base 100 = start of period
TMF

Technical Analysis

Technical Signals

Daily closes · 1-year data

ETF Structural Score

ETF Score evaluates fund wrapper quality, historical performance, and macro regime fit. Not financial advice.

Key Statistics

AUM

Expense Ratio

1.01%

Trailing Yield

Equity

Fixed Income

Issuer

Direxion

vs S&P 500 (SPY) — 1 Year

Beta

0.41

TMF moves 59% less than the S&P 500. Lower market sensitivity — more defensive.

Correlation to SPY

0.17

Low correlation — moves more independently. Adding this alongside SPY reduces portfolio volatility.

Annualised Volatility

28.3%

Standard deviation of daily returns annualised. S&P 500 long-run avg ≈ 15%. At 28%, TMF is significantly more volatile than the broad market.

Relative Performance — TMF vs SPY (base 100)

Base: 100 (day 1)
TMF: 97.3
SPY: 124.7
Alpha: -27.4 (underperformed)

About TMF

3× leveraged long-duration Treasuries. Extreme rate sensitivity.

Macro Regime Alignment

Historical analysis of which macro regimes have favoured TMF. Based on the regime's characteristic interest rate environment, growth conditions, and sector rotation patterns.

Deflationary Bust

Growth ↓ · Inflation ↓

Growth contracting, prices falling. Credit markets seize, defaults rise. Long Treasuries and gold are dominant as investors flee risk.

Rate Cut Anticipation

2Y yield ↓ · Pivot approaching

Growth is slowing and the market is pricing in rate cuts. Bonds rally ahead of the Fed. Gold shines as real rates fall. Risk assets begin recovering on the expectation of easier money.

Volatility Shock

Credit spreads ↑↑ · Stress spike

A financial panic or crisis. Credit markets seize, spreads blow out, and the financial stress index spikes. Cash, gold, and US Treasuries are the only safe havens. Everything else sells off indiscriminately.

Current regime: Inflationary Boom — this ETF is not historically among the strongest performers in the current macro environment. Consider checking which ETFs are regime-aligned on the ETF Explorer.

Disclaimer: All data sourced from Yahoo Finance and is for informational purposes only. Holdings, sector weights, and AUM update daily but may lag official fund disclosures. Performance figures are price-based and do not include dividends. Regime alignment reflects historical observations and does not guarantee future returns. Nothing on this page constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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