Macro dashboard · FRED data
US macroeconomic indicators
Live data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service. Understand the economic environment shaping every company you research.
Macro Signal Snapshot
Full dashboard →Economic Regime — Growth & Inflation Framework
Current Macro Regime
Inflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑
The economy is growing but prices are running hot. Real assets and commodities shine. Growth stocks suffer as discount rates rise. The Fed is typically tightening.
CPI YoY
3.7%
↑ Rising
IP Growth YoY
+1.4%
↑ Rising
Economic Machine — All 8 Regimes
Growth × Inflation
Goldilocks
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↓
Inflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑
Stagflation
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↑
Deflationary Bust
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↓
Rate & Liquidity Overlay
Liquidity Boom
QE · ZIRP · Fed BS ↑
Rate Hike Cycle
Fed Funds ↑↑ · Tightening
Rate Cut Anticipation
2Y yield ↓ · Pivot approaching
Volatility Shock
Credit spreads ↑↑ · Stress spike
Asset class performance in this regime
Strong buy
Commodities
Direct inflation beneficiary — oil, metals, agriculture.
Strong buy
Energy Stocks
Rising prices flow straight to earnings.
Strong buy
TIPS
Principal adjusts with CPI. Direct hedge.
Strong buy
Real Assets
Tangible assets preserve value against inflation.
Moderate
Value Stocks
Financials and industrials benefit from rising rates.
Weak
Growth Stocks
Rising discount rates compress future-earnings multiples.
Avoid
Long-term Nominal Bonds
Fixed coupon eroded by inflation. Duration is a liability.
Closest historical parallels
Post-GFC Recovery
2010–2011
CPI YoY
+3.2%
Growth YoY
+2.5%
Regime
Inflationary Boom
Commodity-led rebound. Energy and materials outperformed.
Housing Boom
2005–2007
CPI YoY
+3.5%
Growth YoY
+2.8%
Regime
Inflationary Boom
Commodity super-cycle. Real assets and energy soared.
Black Monday Era
1987
CPI YoY
+3.6%
Growth YoY
+3.5%
Regime
Inflationary Boom
Rising growth and inflation. Equities crashed 22% in one day.
Growth via INDPRO YoY · Inflation via CPI YoY · Rate velocity via DGS2 · Liquidity via WALCL/M2 · Stress via BAA spreads + STLFSI. Data: FRED (Federal Reserve). Historical analogs matched by Euclidean distance. Not financial advice.
Transition Risk: LOW
Current regime signals are stable. No near-term transition anticipated.
How should your portfolio be positioned for this regime?
Open the Portfolio Analyser pre-loaded with the optimal allocation for the current inflationary boom environment — then compare against your real holdings.
Regime Transition Radar — All 8 Regimes
Active regime
Inflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑
Closest transition
Liquidity Boom · then Rate Cut Anticipation
if Fed resumes balance sheet expansion and cuts rates to near-zero
Base 4 — Growth × Inflation matrix
Score = how strongly current growth and inflation readings point to each quadrant. Scores rarely reach 100% — the highest base score wins when no overlay is triggered. The active base regime can be overridden entirely by any overlay.Overlay 4 — Rate & Liquidity
Score = proximity to the hard detection threshold. At exactly 100% the threshold is fully met and the overlay becomes the active regime — overriding the base completely, regardless of base scores. Overlays are independent of each other.Base Regimes — Growth × Inflation
Goldilocks
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↓
18%
· IP Growth +1.4% YoY
· CPI 3.7% (below 2% target)
Triggers if inflation falls below 2% and growth stays positive
Inflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑
39%
active· IP Growth +1.4% YoY
· CPI 3.7% (above 2% target)
Stagflation
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↑
21%
· IP Growth 1.4% YoY (contracting)
· CPI 3.7% (above 2% target)
Triggers if IP growth turns negative while inflation stays elevated
Deflationary Bust
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↓
0%
· IP Growth 1.4% YoY (contracting)
· CPI 3.7% (below 2% target)
Triggers if growth contracts and inflation falls sharply
Rate & Liquidity Overlays
Liquidity Boom
QE · ZIRP · Fed BS ↑
40%
· Fed balance sheet +2.4% YoY (threshold +10%)
Overrides base at 100% · Triggers if Fed resumes balance sheet expansion and cuts rates to near-zero
Rate Hike Cycle
Fed Funds ↑↑ · Tightening
7%
· Fed Funds +0.11% over 6 months (threshold +1.5%)
Overrides base at 100% · Triggers if Fed accelerates pace of hikes
Rate Cut Anticipation
2Y yield ↓ · Pivot approaching
40%
· Growth slowing (1.4% YoY) but still positive
Overrides base at 100% · Triggers if 2Y yield falls another 0.3% while growth remains below 3%
Volatility Shock
Credit spreads ↑↑ · Stress spike
38%
· BAA spread 1.48% (threshold 3.0%)
· Stress index -0.47 (threshold 1.0)
Overrides base at 100% · Triggers if BAA spreads exceed 3.0% and stress index exceeds 1.0
Scores reflect how strongly live FRED readings satisfy each regime's detection criteria — not a forecast. Not financial advice.
Economic Machine — 30-Year Regime Timeline
Every month since 1994 classified by growth and inflation regime. Background shading shows which regime was active. Toggle zoom windows and indicator lines to explore the relationships.
August 200620 year window · drag brush to navigateAugust 2026
Goldilocks
Inflationary Boom
Stagflation
Deflationary Bust
CPI YoY
IP Growth
Fed Funds
10Y Yield
Goldilocks
6y
15 periods · 75mo total
Inflationary Boom
15y
21 periods · 176mo total
Stagflation
4y
9 periods · 46mo total
Deflationary Bust
5y
6 periods · 61mo total
Central Bank Tracker
Fed H.4.1 →Federal Reserve balance sheet composition and trend. QE (expanding) correlates with Liquidity Boom regimes; QT (contracting) with Rate Hike Cycles. Central bank gold reserves reflect long-term reserve diversification.
Federal Reserve Total Assets
$6.75T
+2.3% YoYas of 2026-10-07
Neutral — stable
Balance sheet stable — neutral for liquidity
Holdings breakdown
US Treasuries
$4.57T · 68%
MBS
$1.74T · 26%
Other
$0.44T · 7%
Central Bank Gold Reserves
WGC · Q1 2025🇺🇸United States
8,133.5t
🇩🇪Germany
3,352.7t
🌐IMF
2,814t
🇮🇹Italy
2,451.8t
🇫🇷France
2,436.9t
🇷🇺Russia
2,333t+9.5t
🇨🇳China
2,279.6t+88.1t
🇨🇭Switzerland
1,040t
🇯🇵Japan
845.9t
🇮🇳India
822.1t+51.2t
Q1 2024 → Q1 2025 changes
🇨🇳China
+88.1taccumulating
🇮🇳India
+51.2taccumulating
🇷🇺Russia
+9.5taccumulating
Central banks bought 1,045 tonnes of gold in 2024 — second consecutive record year. Gold is the only reserve asset with no counterparty risk.
Sector Rotation — GICS Analysis
Sector Rotation
Sectors ranked for Inflationary Boom
1
Industrials
XLI$169.25+0.50%
Strong buy★★★★★
2
Energy
XLE$65.08-0.25%
Strong buy★★★★★
3
Materials
XLB$49.43+0.32%
Strong buy★★★★★
4
Financials
XLF$54.73+0.92%
Overweight★★★★★
5
Technology
XLK$198.78+0.51%
Neutral★★★★★
6
Communication Services
XLC$110.38-1.51%
Neutral★★★★★
7
Consumer Discretionary
XLY$112.85+1.02%
Neutral★★★★★
8
Healthcare
XLV$170.81+1.58%
Neutral★★★★★
9
Real Estate
XLRE$41.61+1.86%
Neutral★★★★★
10
Consumer Staples
XLP$83.43+0.01%
Underweight★★★★★
11
Utilities
XLU$41.41+0.83%
Underweight★★★★★
ETF prices via Yahoo Finance · Rankings derived from 1973–2024 sector return data · Not financial advice
US Treasury Yield Curve
✓
Yield Curve Normal
10-Year yield is above 2-Year — long-term borrowing costs more than short-term
10Y − 2Y spread
+0.24%
US Treasury Yield Curve
CMT rates — Federal Reserve · 2026-10-08
| Tenor | Yield | vs 1Y ago | vs 2Y ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.14% | -0.08% | -0.83% |
| 3M | 4.23% | +0.21% | -0.50% |
| 6M | 4.30% | +0.49% | -0.14% |
| 1Y | 4.44% | +0.78% | +0.26% |
| 2Y | 4.75% | +1.15% | +0.80% |
| 5Y | 4.99% | +1.24% | +1.11% |
| 10Y | 4.99% | +0.79% | -7.53% |
| 30Y | 5.60% | +0.84% | +1.21% |
Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) rates from the Federal Reserve. Updated daily. Historical comparisons use the closest available trading day.
Economic Surprise Tracker
Economic surprise data builds up over time as releases are recorded. Check back once the economic calendar has collected a few weeks of actuals.
Market Sentiment
Equity Market Sentiment
Extreme Greed
1 signal · updated 11:30 PM
VIX (Volatility Index)15
Low — markets are complacent, limited near-term fear priced in
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Historical trend
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Crypto Fear & Greed
Greed
1 signal · updated 11:30 PM
Crypto Fear & Greed64
Alternative.me composite — tracks BTC volatility, volume, social sentiment, and search trends. Tends to lead equity risk appetite.
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Historical trend
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Cross-Asset Snapshot
Commodities
Energy
WTI Crude · Average Price Trend
5-day and 21-day moving average comparison — a directional indicator used in fuel pricing analysis
Previous period
Current period
Period average (SMA)
Weekly (5-day) · Current 5 days vs prior 5 days
Weekly · 5-day SMA
↓ 1.29%Current avg
$90.10
Previous avg
$91.28
Directional signal: The weekly crude average is lower than the prior period. Pump prices typically reflect the weekly crude average with a 1–2 week lag.
Monthly (21-day) · Current 21 days vs prior 21 days
Monthly · 21-day SMA
↑ 8.36%Current avg
$94.68
Previous avg
$87.38
Directional signal: The monthly crude average is higher than the prior period. Monthly pump price reviews (common in regulated markets) track the 21-day crude average. A persistent trend is a stronger signal than a single week.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or commodity trading advice. Moving average comparisons are descriptive indicators, not predictions. Actual pump prices are determined by retailers, distributors, taxes, refining margins, currency exchange rates, and regulatory frameworks — factors not captured here. Fisclear accepts no liability for decisions made based on this content. Always consult a qualified professional before acting on market data. Terms & Conditions
Currencies
Volatility
Bonds
Key signals
Fed rate: 3.75%
Policy is accommodative. Lower borrowing costs support corporate investment and equity valuations.
10Y Treasury: 4.99%
Long rates are elevated. Mortgage costs and corporate bond yields are high — watch for refinancing pressure.
CPI: 3.71% YoY · +0.40% MoM
Inflation is above the 2% target but moderating. The Fed is watching month-on-month changes closely — any re-acceleration could delay rate cuts.
Unemployment: 4.2%
Labour market is tight. Consumer spending remains supported — a positive for consumer-facing companies.
CPI Inflation — YoY & MoM
Full 5-year history →CPI Inflation trend — US (CPIAUCSL)
3.71%
Year-on-Year
+0.396%
Month-on-Month
Fed target: 2% YoY
CPI YoY % — left axis
CPI MoM % — right axis
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL · 2026-08
5-year history
Source: FRED / Federal ReserveFederal Funds Rate
3.75%
The interest rate set by the Fed for overnight bank lending.
Low 0.08%Now 3.75%High 5.33%
View full chart →
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.99%
Benchmark borrowing cost for mortgages, corporate bonds, and equity valuation.
Low 1.47%Now 4.99%High 4.99%
View full chart →
CPI Inflation Index
334.1
Consumer Price Index — the broadest measure of price inflation in the US.
Low 276.55Now 334.13High 334.13
View full chart →
M2 Money Supply
$23.34T
Broad money supply — cash, deposits, and money market funds.
Low $20.7TNow $23.3THigh $23.3T
View full chart →
Industrial Production
103.1
Fed index of real output for manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Low 99.22Now 103.07High 103.07
View full chart →
Unemployment Rate
4.20%
US civilian unemployment rate — a key indicator of labour market health.
Low 3.40%Now 4.20%High 4.50%
View full chart →
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