Live · auto-refreshes every 5 min
Current Rate
3.50–3.75%
Fed Funds Target Range
Next Meeting (Jul 28–29)
Hold
70% probability
Terminal Rate (end-2026)
4.19%
Market-implied mid rate
Implied Cuts (year)
+2hikes
×25bp vs current rate
Market-Implied Rate Path
Probability-weighted expected Fed Funds rate at each FOMC meeting
FOMC Meeting Probabilities
Past meetings (12)
FOMC Decision — Jul 28–29
Implied Rate: 3.70%
Most likely
Hold
Probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Funds Futures (CME). Not financial advice.
How to read this tool
What are these probabilities?
Derived from 30-Day Fed Funds Futures prices traded on CME. If the market prices a futures contract implying a rate of 4.10%, and a hold would give 4.33%, the math implies ~92% hold probability.
What is the terminal rate?
The market-implied rate at the final FOMC meeting shown. It represents where futures traders collectively expect the Fed to end the year — not where rates will definitely go.
Yield curve implication
When futures price in many cuts, the yield curve typically steepens (long rates above short rates). When cuts are priced out, the curve can invert — historically a recession signal.
Probabilities derived from CME 30-Day Fed Funds Futures · Current rate from FRED · Refreshed hourly · Not financial advice