Yield Curve
10Y – 2Y Treasury Spread
0.38%
▼ -0.07% 3m
As of 2026-10-28 · FRED
The 10Y–2Y spread is 0.38% — nearly flat. Long-term growth expectations are modest. Economy is neither in expansion mode nor under serious stress.
Credit Spreads
BAA Corporate – 10Y Treasury
1.48%
▼ -0.05% 3m
As of 2026-09-01 · FRED
BAA–10Y spread at 1.48%. Corporate credit is healthy — lenders see low default risk. Supports continued corporate borrowing and investment.
Financial Stress
St. Louis Fed Stress Index
-0.58
▲ +0.24 3m
As of 2026-10-23 · FRED
Financial stress index at -0.58 — well below average. Markets are calm, credit is flowing, volatility is low. Historically associated with positive equity returns.
Fed Balance Sheet
Total Assets (trillions USD)
$6.75T
▲ +$0.01T 3m
As of 2026-10-21 · FRED
Fed balance sheet at $6.8T (+2.5% YoY). No significant QE or QT. Liquidity is neither being added nor drained.
Real Interest Rates
10Y TIPS Yield
2.64%
▲ +0.23% 3m
As of 2026-10-27 · FRED
Real 10Y rate at 2.64%. Highly restrictive — the most significant headwind for equity multiples in a decade. Historically associated with housing weakness and EM stress.
US Dollar Index
Broad Trade-Weighted USD
121.32
▲ +0.60 3m
As of 2026-10-23 · FRED
USD broad index at 121.3 (+0.3% YoY). Dollar is range-bound — neutral for global risk assets, commodities, and EM.
M2 Velocity
GDP / M2 Money Supply
1.42×
▼ 0.00× 3m
As of 2026-04-01 · FRED
M2 velocity at 1.42× — stable. The rate at which money changes hands is steady, suggesting neither inflationary nor deflationary pressure from money circulation.
How to read these signals
Yield Curve
Negative = inverted. Every US recession since 1950 has followed an inversion by 12–18 months.
Credit Spreads
Higher spreads = market pricing in defaults. Above 3% has historically signalled financial stress.
Financial Stress
Zero is normal. Above 1.0 = elevated stress. Below -0.5 = unusually calm, risk appetite high.
Fed Balance Sheet
Expanding (QE) = liquidity injected, bullish. Shrinking (QT) = liquidity drained, headwind.
Real Interest Rates
Negative real rates inflate asset prices. Above 2% = restrictive — compresses equity multiples.
US Dollar Index
Rising USD = headwind for commodities, EM, and US multinational earnings. Falling = tailwind.
M2 Velocity
Rising velocity = money circulating faster, inflationary. Falling = deflation risk building.
All data via FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). Updated every 6 hours. Not financial advice.
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